Michael Loccisano/Getty Images Entertainment

Michael Loccisano/Getty Images Entertainment

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (NYSE:BABA ) just released its fourth quarter earnings. The release beat expectations on revenue as well as on EPS. The $3 billion year-over-year increase in revenue showed that BABA was able to crank out strong sales growth even amid China’s lockdowns and other macroeconomic headwinds.

Alibaba had a lot of things working in its favor going into its Q2 release. The company had negative earnings in the prior year quarter, which meant that the comparisons were soft this time around. The company was caught off guard by some lockdowns in major Chinese cities, but it wasn’t until Q2 (Alibaba’s fiscal Q1) that they became truly widespread. Additionally, BABA enjoyed a significant increase in web traffic in Q4 across virtually all of its online channels. Despite these two factors working in BABA’s favor, analysts still cut estimates repeatedly throughout the quarter, leading to weak expectations.

So, Alibaba had many advantages heading into this release. Which is why it was not surprising that earnings beat expectations. In Q4, Alibaba put most of its 2021 tech crackdown damage behind it. We’re beginning to see the effects of that today.

With a solid fourth quarter under its belt, Alibaba has a good foundation to build from. While the upcoming quarterly release is likely to be weak due to China’s heavy Q2 lockdowns, BABA will once again have soft comparisons in the September quarter. This lends credence to the idea that 2022 will be the year when Alibaba recovers–although the process may take longer than we initially thought.

For the fourth quarter, Alibaba delivered strong earnings, beating on both the top and bottom lines. Some highlights include:

Revenue: $32.1 billion, up 9% (beat by $3 billion);

Diluted EPS: $1.25, down 23% (beat by $0.16);

Operating cash flow: $-1.1 billion.

Pretty strong results, all things considered. Even with lockdowns taking place in the fourth quarter, Alibaba managed to grow its revenue by billions of dollars.

A few metrics in the release were particularly surprising, such as the 8% growth in core commerce. Going into the release, many investors expected the core eCommerce segment to weigh on results, as China was going through lockdowns in Q4. In past quarters, that segment underperformed relative to the cloud segment. This time around, that trend reversed. In Q4, Alibaba Cloud lost its biggest customer, which resulted in the segment growing by only 21%. Alibaba Cloud has long been considered a major potential growth driver for BABA, so its comparative under-performance in Q4 was a disappointment.

The cloud segment is worth exploring in detail. In the earnings release, BABA said that “a top customer” cut out its use of Alibaba cloud due to slowing demand in China. It did not specify the identity of the customer. The customer also apparently ceased using Alibaba Cloud in its international business, though it declined to say why. According to Alibaba, cloud growth would have been 29% had this customer not stopped using the service.

So, although Alibaba Cloud growth decelerated significantly in Q4, there is reason to think that it will pick up again. The 29% growth that Alibaba Cloud would have delivered had this customer still been in the picture would have been commensurate with past quarters, meaning that BABA would not have experienced deceleration. If Alibaba can get that customer back, then its growth could accelerate in the near future.

To truly understand Alibaba’s Q4 results, we need to check in on how the company’s competitors have been doing. It’s well known that China’s government wants to increase competition in the tech sector, and this has been cited as a headwind for Alibaba. Given this, it makes sense to look at some of BABA’s competitors’ recent releases. Armed with this information, we can gauge how much of an advantage or disadvantage BABA has going forward.

First, let’s look at JD.com, Inc. (JD). JD’s earnings release was mixed. Revenue beat expectations, growing 18%, as did adjusted earnings. GAAP earnings, on the other hand, missed by a pretty wide margin, coming in at $-0.29, compared to $-0.02 expected. It wasn’t a great release, but the growth in revenue shows that one of BABA’s competitors is increasing its presence in the market. That could be thought of as a negative for BABA.

Next up we have Pinduoduo Inc. (PDD). PDD’s most recent release showed its slowest revenue growth in years. Coming in at 3%, the company’s revenue decelerated dramatically. That was definitely a positive for Alibaba. Pinduoduo’s popular group purchase model in agricultural goods could have made it a real competitor to BABA had it branched out into more product categories. Now that PDD’s growth is slowing down, it looks like the possible competitive threat has eased off.

Alibaba’s Q4 results are particularly encouraging when we consider them along with the company’s valuation. Alibaba’s recent earnings beat expectations, yet the company’s stock is still very cheap, boasting valuation multiples like:

The above metrics strongly hint at a company that may be undervalued. BABA is, quite frankly, priced like it’s going out of business. Its price/book multiple is approaching a level where the company would be trading below the value of assets, net of debt, if its stock went much lower. In fact, Alibaba could reach the point where it’s trading below book value this quarter if its stock portfolio increases in value.

Alibaba is known to hold a lot of stocks and other marketable securities on its balance sheet. In recent quarters, this factor has been reducing the company’s GAAP earnings, as GAAP accounting rules state that you have to subtract mark-to-market losses on securities from net income, even if the losses weren’t realized. It’s a peculiar accounting rule that Warren Buffett has criticized due to it producing “earnings” that don’t reflect operating performance. It is true that mark-to-market accounting produces earnings that have nothing to do with business performance. However, this exact same factor could push BABA’s assets and earnings higher in the future, leading to an even lower price/book multiple and even greater perceived undervaluation.

As we’ve seen, Alibaba is a strong player in China’s eCommerce industry that just put out a better-than-expected earnings release. Its stock is also very cheap. Taking all of this together, one gets the sense of a great value.

However, there are several risks and challenges to keep in mind, including:

June quarter earnings. It’s quite likely that Alibaba’s June quarter earnings will be weak. There were at least two full months of severe lockdowns in several Chinese cities in Q1. At the peak, more than 400 million Chinese citizens were locked down. There were some lockdowns in the just-reported quarter, but they weren’t as strict, and they didn’t affect as many people. There are already early signs that the Q2 lockdowns hit BABA pretty hard. BABA’s web traffic severely declined in April after rising in March. This suggests that, possibly, Chinese citizens were spending less money due to lockdown-induced supply constraints, or income loss.

Lockdowns. Related to the June quarter earnings release is the prospect of Chinese lockdowns in general. China still officially maintains a “Zero COVID policy” which means that it is willing to use lockdowns to combat even small numbers of cases. This can lead to less retail spending when it occurs, which is a bad thing for online retail platforms like the ones BABA operates.

A renewed tech crackdown. China’s tech crackdown was the biggest single factor behind Alibaba’s crash in 2021. The crackdown resulted in BABA taking a $2.8 billion fine, a tax hike, and a host of other challenges. At the start of this year, it was looking like the crackdown was still ongoing. The government was just about to launch a new inquiry into Ant Group when the COVID outbreak hit and the anti-trust inquiries were put on hold. Since then, China’s policy has been to support the markets rather than pressure them. However, there is always the possibility that the crackdown will flare up again. If it does, it could cost BABA some money.

The macro climate. China’s macroeconomic environment could be considered a short term risk factor for Alibaba. China’s retail spending growth was -11% in April. It could continue to be negative if China continues to pursue its aggressive stance on COVID. Additionally, China will face softer export growth should the U.S. enter the recession that many expect, and is still dealing with the economic fallout from the collapse of Evergrande. Taking all of these factors together, we get a picture of a decidedly challenging macroeconomic environment.

If you’re considering taking a position in Alibaba, you’ll want to give the risk factors above a good hard mulling over. To my mind, BABA stock is a good value, because the stock is cheap and the company has a good competitive position. But a stock facing this many risk factors isn’t for everyone. It has been a volatile ride so far, and probably will be for the foreseeable future.

As for me, I plan to continue holding BABA. For an investor with a long time horizon, there are few better deals in the market today. A lot of people in this market speak of Meta Platforms, Inc. (FB) as a value stock, yet its multiples are all higher than BABA’s despite it having slower revenue growth. Alibaba is the kind of rock bottom bargain you rarely see anywhere other than China, which is why I remain long this stock despite all of the risk factors it faces.

This article was written by

Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of BABA, FB either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.